US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose unprecedented trade tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries has come as a real shock to the global financial order . With the global economy still reeling from the pandemic , energy turbulence and war in Europe , Washington is launching a new tariff race – this time against everyone . Financial expert Chaslau Koniukh talks about the consequences of Trump’s policy .
Just a few hours after Trump’s statement, US stock indices collapsed : Nasdaq and S&P 500 lost more than 3%, Dow Jones – more than 4%. Shares of giants such as Apple, Nvidia, Amazon and Meta lost up to 7% of their value , and the total market losses exceeded $ 1 trillion. Currency markets reacted immediately – the dollar lost ground , investors fled to gold , Japanese yen and Swiss franc .
“This is a classic supply shock , combined with a geopolitical signal : the US no longer plays by the rules of globalization,” says financial analyst Chaslau Koniukh . “Trump’s tariff policy could not only change the balance of trade flows , but also effectively usher in a new era of regional protectionism . “
Turbulence Zone: Inflation , Recession , Mistrust
Fitch Ratings forecasts , the US could trigger the deepest global recession since 2009. Economies that rely on exports to the US – the EU, China, Vietnam, South Korea – are particularly vulnerable . Import costs are expected to rise , and with them , prices for American consumers .
“What we are seeing is a politically motivated turn toward isolationism,” says Koniukh. “From the point of view of financial markets , the consequences are catastrophic . Rising inflation , panic on the stock exchanges, falling indices , a decline in the investment attractiveness of the United States . “
The reaction of the allies is no less alarming . The EU and Canada are already preparing a package of retaliatory measures , and France is calling for an end to investments in the American economy . The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, warned of a “deep crisis of trust” between the transatlantic partners .
At the same time, the Trump administration is showing confidence . The US President declared that “the patient is alive , and the prognosis is better than ever . ” However , market data says otherwise : analysts at Barclays and BofA are warning of the risk of a recession in the US itself , with unemployment possibly rising to 7% in 2027.
For Trump, trade wars are part of his political platform . However, this time the scale is greater than in 2018-2019. Then it was mainly about China . Today, US allies are also under attack – Japan , Europe , even Canada .
“There is every reason to believe that the current tariffs are more of a political game than an economic strategy,” adds Koniukh . ” Investors , however , cannot afford the luxury of waiting . They react here and now . “
business associations are already sounding the alarm : new tariffs are reducing margins , causing costs to rise and leading to a reduction in investment . The small and medium enterprise sector , especially those dependent on imported components , is on the verge of losing competitiveness.
Global markets on the brink of a nervous breakdown
The rising tariff burden has already caused a shift in monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve is caught between the need to contain inflation – which will accelerate due to more expensive imports – and the market’s expectation that it will cut rates to support the economy . Following the tariff announcement, yields on 10- year US Treasuries fell to a five-month low , indicating increased demand for safe assets and fears of a recession .
“Central banks are forced to react to factors they do not control – trade policy . This creates the risk of unsynchronized actions , which can only increase instability,” notes Chaslau Koniukh . “Global coordination is disappearing , and this is an alarming signal . “
The end of the free trade era ?
Many experts are already talking about the end of globalization in its classical sense . The introduction of tariffs against virtually all major US partners calls into question the very architecture of international trade formed after World War II . The WTO system has been marginalized. Trade conflicts are once again becoming a political instrument .
“Trump is destroying not only the rules of trade , but also the belief in predictability,” concludes Koniukh . “This is the main risk for the global economy – that there will be no more rules , only power politics . “
Koniukh believes that Trump’s new tariffs are not just reformatting global trade – they are changing the rules of the game in the global economy . Countries and companies are forced to react quickly , rethink strategies , and revise supply chains. The world is facing the challenge of geoeconomic restructuring , where autonomy, political loyalty, and the ability to quickly adapt to new realities will dominate rather than efficiency .
In the short term, the markets will still hold on by inertia . But in the medium term, the world is entering a period of protracted instability , where the main resource will not be capital , but the ability to strategically adapt . “If other countries give a mirror response in the coming months , we will get a tariff spiral , from which it will be difficult to get out without losses,” warns Koniukh .
According to financial analyst Chaslau Koniukh, current events are not just another round of trade conflict , but the beginning of a new geoeconomic reality . A world where rules are determined not by agreements , but by force, requires new instruments of protection and thinking in terms of economic security rather than exports .
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